Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks released a revised wolf population estimate this month that suggests the state’s wolf population has declined significantly from previously calculated figures, prompting the agency to recommend a lower harvest quota for the coming hunting season.
The new estimation tool, called iPOM 2.0, places Montana’s wolf population at 725 animals, compared with the 1,094 wolves estimated using the previous model. The decline aligns with trend analysis showing a steady decrease in the population since 2021, when state lawmakers mandated efforts to reduce wolf numbers across Montana.
New Model and Management Framework
FWP adopted iPOM 2.0 as its official population-estimation method despite the fact that the tool has not yet completed peer review, though the original iPOM model has undergone that process. Quentin Kujala, the agency’s Chief of Conservation Policy, said the department views the upgrade as methodologically sound. “We’re confident in iPOM 2.0 and see it as an advancement in science and modeling,” Kujala stated.
Montana’s Wolf Management Plan establishes a minimum threshold of 450 wolves with at least 15 breeding pairs. The current estimate of 725 animals remains above that floor, but the downward trend has prompted FWP to recommend reducing the harvest quota from 450 wolves in the previous year to 250 for the 2026-2027 season.
The most recent hunting season, which closed March 15, saw hunters and trappers remove 247 wolves from the population. Hunters accounted for 145 of that total, or 59 percent, while trappers took 102 animals, representing 41 percent of the harvest. Calendar-year 2025 saw a total of 264 wolves taken. The 2025-2026 season harvest marked the lowest annual take in a decade.
Regulatory Timeline
FWP released the population report and proposed wolf-hunting regulations for public comment on July 17. The Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to consider the proposed regulations on August 19, when commissioners may adopt, modify, or reject the agency’s recommendations.
The revised population estimate and quota reduction have drawn differing reactions. Conservation advocates who long questioned the previous population model view the change as validation of their concerns. Lizzy Pennock, an attorney with WildEarth Guardians, characterized the shift as a belated acknowledgment of past methodology problems. “FWP finally admitted what we’ve been saying for years: the state’s wolf counts were wrong and they’ve been misleading the public,” Pennock said.
Broader Context
Wolves in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and portions of eastern Oregon and Washington operate under state management authority rather than federal Endangered Species Act protections. In the broader region, gray wolves remain listed as endangered in 44 states and as threatened in Minnesota, underscoring Montana’s unique position as a jurisdiction actively managing a recovering population.
The 2021 legislative mandate to reduce wolf numbers reflected rural concerns about livestock predation and elk populations. FWP’s revised population model and lower harvest recommendation represent the agency’s effort to balance that directive with the statutory population floor and the practical realities of wolf distribution and reproduction across the state.
The public comment period remains open ahead of the August 19 commission meeting, when final decisions on harvest quotas and season structure are expected.
