Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks released its 2025 annual wolf report Friday, introducing a new population model that estimates significantly fewer wolves in the state than previous calculations and triggering a substantial reduction in the proposed hunting quota for the coming season.
The new model estimates 155 wolf packs and roughly 725 wolves statewide, compared to the prior model’s estimate of 181 packs and 1,094 wolves for 2025. The proposed hunting quota for the 2026-27 season has been lowered to 250 wolves, down from the previous year’s quota of 452 wolves—a cut of nearly 45 percent.
Model Development and Uncertainty
The shift reflects Montana’s first comprehensive recalibration of wolf population estimates in five years. The old model, developed with the University of Montana and relied upon since 2021, incorporated hunter surveys, known wolf locations, and habitat data through 2018. The new model took several years to construct and incorporates wolf counts spanning 2007 to 2025, providing a longer historical dataset.
However, the new model has not yet undergone peer review or publication, creating a transition period in which both estimates are being presented to policymakers and the public. Nick Danielson, communications chief for Fish, Wildlife & Parks, said the agency wants the Fish and Wildlife Commission and public to evaluate both models until the scientific review process is complete.
“At this point, both models are being used and presented,” Danielson said. “Until peer review occurs, we want the commission and public to see estimates from both models.”
Population Trends and Legal Minimums
Both models show a consistent pattern: Montana’s wolf population has declined since 2013. At the proposed quota of 250 wolves removed annually, roughly one-third of the estimated 725-wolf population would be harvested each year.
Montana’s wolf management plan establishes a legal minimum of 15 breeding pairs, or approximately 450 wolves statewide. The new population estimate of 725 wolves places the population above that threshold, though closer to the minimum than the previous estimate suggested.
Gray wolves have been protected under the Endangered Species Act since 1973. Federal wolf restoration efforts in northwestern Montana, central Idaho, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem ran from 1979 to 1996. The species was federally delisted in 2011, transferring management responsibility to the state. Regulated hunting seasons began in 2009.
Commission Review and Public Input
The Fish and Wildlife Commission will consider the proposed 2026-27 hunting and trapping regulations at a meeting scheduled for August 19. Public comment is being accepted through August 12 and during the meeting itself.
Residents interested in virtual participation can register beginning August 4; registration closes at noon on August 18. The commission’s decisions on the new quota and any associated regulation changes will shape Montana’s wolf management approach heading into the next hunting season.
The lower estimate has already drawn attention from wildlife advocates. Josh Schott, Rocky Mountain coordinator for Team Wolf, framed the revision as validation of prior concerns: “Now we have proof there are 400 fewer wolves than what they’ve been saying.”
