Republican Kurt Alme is on track to win Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to polling data shared with Semafor, with his advantage driven largely by a divided field that has prevented Democrats and independents from consolidating against him.

The Numbers

A late August survey put Alme at 44 percent, with independent Seth Bodnar at 22 percent and Democrat Alani Bankhead at 19 percent. Roughly 13 percent of voters remained undecided. Among voters who lean Democratic, Bodnar captured 49 percent and Bankhead 43 percent — a near-even split that effectively neutralizes opposition to Alme.

A Divided Field

Both Bodnar and Bankhead declined opportunities this summer to exit the race, leaving the anti-Alme vote fractured heading into the November 3 general election. Alme is running to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Steve Daines, a Republican. A poll average has already placed Alme’s odds of winning at roughly nine in ten.

The dynamic mirrors patterns seen in other multi-candidate races where a unified opposition could theoretically threaten a front-runner but fails to materialize in practice. With neither Bodnar nor Bankhead showing signs of stepping aside, Alme’s path to the Senate appears increasingly clear as the campaign enters its final weeks.