Republican Kurt Alme is running ahead in Montana’s 2026 Senate race, with fresh polling showing the GOP nominee commanding a substantial advantage over Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar in the contest to succeed retiring Senator Steve Daines.
According to internal polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Alme draws 45 percent support in the three-way race, compared to 30 percent for Bankhead and 15 percent for Bodnar. In head-to-head matchups, Alme leads Bodnar 50 percent to 43 percent and edges Bankhead 49 percent to 46 percent.
Party Fracture in Democratic Ranks
The polling snapshot arrives amid visible tension within Montana’s Democratic establishment, where senior party figures have been pressuring Bankhead to withdraw from the race. A Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive stated that the organization “partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not,” signaling the national party’s loss of confidence in her candidacy.
Under Montana law, if Bankhead were to withdraw, the state Democratic Party would appoint her replacement rather than hold a new primary, a mechanism that has drawn scrutiny as party insiders debate the best path forward in what appears to be a challenging cycle for Democrats in the state.
Bodnar, a former state legislator running as an independent, has emerged as a complicating factor in the race. A Montana Republican operative working on the campaign acknowledged Bodnar’s role in fragmenting the anti-Alme vote, saying that “Bodnar’s continued presence in this race is helping Kurt Alme tremendously; Bodnar is causing so much damage to Alani that it’s almost like he is our plant in the race.” The independent candidate has not indicated any intention to exit the race.
National Context and Regional Shifts
The Montana Senate race unfolds as Republicans seek to expand their Senate majority and as Democratic campaigns face pressure in several competitive states. The dynamic in Montana reflects broader challenges for Democrats this cycle, with internal party divisions adding to headwinds created by a political environment that has shifted in Republicans’ favor since the 2024 presidential election.
Alme, who secured the Republican nomination, is positioned to benefit from both structural advantages—the retiring seat held by his party, favorable statewide polling trends for Republicans—and the three-way split among his opponents. Daines, who held the seat for two decades before being elevated to leadership roles in the Senate, anchored Montana’s Republican representation and his departure opens the race for a new chapter in the state’s representation.
Broader Dynamics Across the West
Montana’s Senate dynamics reflect broader regional patterns. In neighboring Idaho, Democratic David Roth withdrew from his challenge to Republican Senator Jim Risch to clear the field for independent candidate Todd Achilles, who was previously elected as a Democrat. That move, aimed at consolidating opposition to Risch, underscores how different parties are making different strategic calculations about how best to compete in each state’s unique political landscape.
With Montana’s primary already behind and the general election on November 3, the coming months will test whether Democratic efforts to reshape the race through Bankhead’s potential withdrawal—or continued efforts to convince Bodnar to step aside—can alter the current trajectory. The polling snapshot from late July provides a baseline against which the race’s evolution will be measured through the fall campaign.
