Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks has proposed cutting the upcoming wolf hunting and trapping quota by nearly half after a revised population model produced a sharply lower estimate of wolves living in the state. The agency released the new modeling data on Friday, estimating Montana’s wolf population at approximately 725 animals — down from a previous estimate of 1,094, a drop of roughly 34 percent.

A New Model, Lower Numbers

The revised estimate comes from an updated modeling tool FWP calls iPOM 2.0, a successor to the agency’s previous integrated Patch Occupancy Model. The original model relied exclusively on the highest-quality wolf observation data. The newer version incorporates moderate-quality observations as well, producing what the agency describes as a more complete picture of the population.

Quentin Kujala, FWP’s chief of conservation policy, characterized the change as a technical improvement rather than an alarm signal. “It’s a refinement of our modeling process,” he said.

The new model also indicates that Montana’s wolf population is trending downward, not simply that it was overcounted before.

Proposed Quota Down Sharply

Based on the revised population figures, FWP has proposed a harvest quota of 250 wolves for the season running September through March. Last year’s quota was 452 wolves, meaning the proposed limit represents a reduction of more than 44 percent.

Last season, hunters and trappers took 247 wolves statewide — the lowest harvest total since 2016. Beyond licensed hunting and trapping, an additional 43 wolves were killed by state and federal agencies or landowners responding to livestock conflicts. Eight wolves were poached, seven died in vehicle or train collisions, and six perished from other causes.

Montana maintains a statutory minimum wolf population floor of 450 animals. With the new estimate placing the population at 725, the state remains above that threshold, but the margin is considerably narrower than earlier figures suggested.

Political and Legal Background

Wolf management in Montana has been a persistent flashpoint between agricultural interests, hunters, and conservation groups since the federal government removed wolves from Endangered Species Act protections in 2011. The Montana Legislature took an aggressive posture in 2021, directing FWP to reduce the statewide wolf population. In the years since, the state has permitted hunting methods including night hunting and neck snaring.

Lizzy Pennock, a carnivore coexistence attorney with WildEarth Guardians, welcomed the revised modeling as a long-overdue correction. “I think FWP’s announcement about the updated population model is incredibly significant. And about five years later than I would like,” she said. Her comment reflects a broader criticism from wildlife advocates that FWP’s earlier population estimates allowed harvest quotas that were unsustainable given the actual number of wolves on the landscape.

The population revision is likely to renew debate about whether Montana’s wolf management approach over the past several years was calibrated appropriately. Supporters of more aggressive management argue that wolves pose an ongoing threat to livestock and game herds, while conservation groups contend the data now vindicates their long-standing concerns about overharvest.

What Comes Next

FWP has opened a public comment period on the proposed quota that runs through August 12. The Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to meet on August 19, at which point it is expected to take up the quota proposal for a final decision before the September season opener.

The outcome of that meeting will set the tone for wolf management heading into the 2026–2027 hunting season and will likely draw significant public attention given the scale of the population revision. Landowner groups, tribal governments, hunting organizations, and wildlife nonprofits have all historically participated in the commission’s wolf quota proceedings.

The revised numbers also arrive as Montana’s congressional delegation and state officials continue to navigate federal land and wildlife policy questions under the Trump administration, which has maintained a posture generally supportive of state control over wildlife management decisions within their borders.