Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks has acknowledged that its wolf population estimates were significantly inflated, releasing a revised model that puts the statewide count at roughly 725 animals — well below the previous figure of 1,094 wolves reported in 2025. The correction has prompted a proposal to cut next season’s harvest quota nearly in half.
A Major Revision to the Numbers
The updated population model, known as iPOM 2.0, estimates between 618 and 836 wolves in Montana, with 725 as the central figure. That compares to prior estimates hovering around 1,100 animals — a difference of several hundred wolves. FWP’s 2025 report marks the first time the revised model data has been made publicly available, though the model has not yet undergone a formal peer-review process.
The discrepancy matters beyond simple accounting. Montana has established a benchmark minimum wolf population of 450 animals, and federal Endangered Species Act protections require the state to maintain at least 15 breeding pairs for wolves to remain off the list. With the new estimate placing the population closer to that floor, wildlife managers are revisiting how aggressively the state should be managing harvest levels.
Proposed Quota Cut
In response to the revised numbers, FWP is proposing to reduce the wolf harvest quota from 450 animals down to 250 for the coming season. The Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to take up the proposal at an August 19 meeting.
The 2025-26 hunting and trapping season, which closed March 15, yielded 247 wolves total — 145 taken by hunters and 102 by trappers. That harvest total is the lowest since 2016. Regional breakdowns show Region 1 accounting for 98 wolves, Region 2 for 79, and Region 3 for 54.
The proposed quota of 250 is notable because it nearly matches what was actually harvested last season, meaning hunters and trappers came close to filling a quota that FWP now believes may have been set too high given the actual population size.
Reaction From Wildlife Advocates
Conservation groups were quick to point to the revision as validation of longstanding concerns. Lizzy Pennock of WildEarth Guardians said the agency had been providing inaccurate figures to the public for years, calling the updated model an overdue admission. Rob Crabtree of the Yellowstone Ecological Research Center raised a broader question about how wolves are modeled, noting that “these are social animals with a social structure different than all the other species that Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks manages” — a distinction he suggested complicates population estimates.
The population revision comes amid ongoing tension between wildlife advocates, ranching interests, and state managers over how Montana handles its wolf population. Hunters and trappers have generally supported robust quotas, while conservation organizations have argued the state’s management approach risks pushing numbers dangerously close to federal recovery thresholds.
What Comes Next
The Fish and Wildlife Commission’s August 19 meeting will be the key decision point for the proposed 250-animal quota. Because the iPOM 2.0 model has not yet been peer-reviewed, that process will likely shape how much weight commissioners and the broader public assign to its conclusions. If the model’s findings are validated, the state could face pressure to sustain lower harvest limits for multiple seasons while the population is more closely monitored.
The outcome will carry political weight as well. Wolf management remains one of the more contentious wildlife policy issues in Montana, intersecting with livestock depredation concerns, tribal interests, federal oversight, and competing visions for how the Northern Rockies ecosystem should be managed. With the August commission meeting approaching, ranchers, hunters, and conservation groups are all likely to weigh in before a final quota is set.
