Governor Greg Gianforte and state and federal fire officials gathered Tuesday for a seasonal briefing on Montana’s wildfire outlook, offering a measured sense of relief after substantial rainfall hit parts of the state — while warning that summer heat and drying conditions could still produce a difficult fire season in key regions.
Rain Brings Temporary Relief
Recent precipitation events have delivered meaningful moisture across Montana. Some areas logged up to seven inches of rain, while communities in north-central Montana — including Great Falls, Cut Bank, and Havre in the Golden Triangle — received between two and three inches. Officials described the storm system as roughly a one-in-five-year occurrence in terms of intensity.
The rainfall follows a stretch of well-above-normal temperatures, during which high temperature records fell across numerous western communities. Despite the wet reprieve, snowpack remains below average statewide, limiting the longer-term buffer that heavy winter accumulation typically provides heading into fire season.
Hot Spots Identified for Summer
Fire managers identified eastern Montana as carrying above-normal fire potential through July, with concern shifting to the southwestern corner of the state as summer progresses. Officials expect fuel curing in southwestern Montana to intensify fire risk in July, with the threat spreading into the Bitterroot region by August.
Dan Borsum, one of the agency officials at the briefing, pointed to the temperature picture as a compounding factor. “That is an accelerant that does cause and promote drying across the land,” he said of the warmer-than-normal forecasts. July temperature outlooks remain a particular concern for fire managers heading into the peak of the season.
One note of cautious encouragement: Montana has seen late-summer monsoonal moisture arrive for three consecutive years, which helped moderate conditions during the back half of those fire seasons. Whether that pattern holds in 2026 remains to be seen. Earlier analysis this spring flagged declining snowpack and spreading drought as factors that could drive a more severe fire season.
Treatment Work and Agency Readiness
Officials highlighted significant pre-season fuel treatment work already completed. Roughly 177,000 acres have been treated through mechanical thinning and prescribed burns this spring, part of a broader agreement between Montana and the U.S. Forest Service to target hundreds of thousands of acres for hazardous fuel reduction.
Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation Director Amanda Kaster emphasized that the state has steadily built up its firefighting capacity in recent years. “Over the past several years, we have expanded our response capabilities to defeat and meet the demands of a longer and more complex fire season,” Kaster said at the briefing.
The U.S. Wildland Fire Service, which has been working through a phased organizational rollout, indicated it expects to be at full readiness for the 2026 fire season.
A Mixed Picture Heading Into Summer
Montana’s fire history in recent years adds context to the current outlook. Last year ranked as the second-windiest on record in the state, a factor that amplified fire behavior regardless of fuel moisture conditions. The state also saw flooding in parts of the fall and early winter, an unusual swing that underscored the volatility of recent weather patterns.
The combination of reduced snowpack, warming temperature forecasts, and identified hotspots in both eastern and southwestern Montana suggests that, despite the encouraging rainfall, land managers are not standing down. Federal and state agencies have already flagged resource needs and public land management priorities as key variables heading into what could be another demanding season.
Officials did not put a specific acreage prediction on potential fire activity but made clear that preparation — not precipitation alone — would determine the state’s ability to respond effectively if conditions turn severe in July and August.
