Montana’s Fish and Wildlife Park agency released a sharply revised estimate of the state’s wolf population Friday, suggesting roughly 725 wolves inhabit the region—a decline of 34 percent from the previous estimate of 1,094 animals. The new figure, generated through an updated population model, has prompted wildlife officials to propose cutting the annual hunting and trapping quota nearly in half, from 452 wolves to 250, for the September-to-March season ahead.
The revised count rests on a new iteration of the state’s population modeling tool, called iPOM 2.0, which incorporates a broader range of wolf observation data than its predecessor. The earlier model relied exclusively on highest-quality sightings, while the updated version includes moderate-quality observations as well. The findings remain subject to peer review.
Population Decline Reflects Multiple Pressures
Last season, hunters and trappers removed 247 wolves from Montana—the lowest harvest since 2016. Beyond licensed hunting and trapping, state and federal agents killed 43 wolves in response to livestock conflicts, while poachers accounted for 8 additional deaths. Vehicle and train collisions killed 7 wolves, and 6 died from other causes.
Montana’s minimum population target stands at 450 wolves. The new estimate of 725 falls well above that threshold but suggests the population has contracted despite regulatory protections remaining in place since the federal government removed wolves from the Endangered Species Act in 2011.
Quentin Kujala, chief of conservation policy for Fish and Wildlife Park, characterized the shift as methodological refinement. “It’s a refinement of our modeling process,” he said, underscoring that the agency’s approach to population monitoring has evolved rather than suggesting an abrupt biological change.
Legislative Direction and Ongoing Debate
The proposed quota reduction aligns with a 2021 directive from the Montana Legislature that tasked the agency with reducing the statewide wolf population. Since that mandate, state officials have authorized night hunting and neck snaring—methods that accelerated harvest levels in subsequent seasons.
The new estimate has already drawn reactions from conservation advocates. Lizzy Pennock, a carnivore coexistence attorney with WildEarth Guardians, expressed both approval and frustration with the timing. “I think FWP’s announcement about the updated population model is incredibly significant. And about five years later than I would like,” she said.
The shift in population estimates carries policy weight. A lower baseline population can justify more restrictive hunting rules to prevent overharvest, even as legislative pressure has historically pushed toward aggressive lethal removal.
Public Comment and Regulatory Timeline
The Fish and Wildlife Park agency has opened a public comment period through August 12 on the proposed quota reduction and the underlying population model. The state’s Fish and Wildlife Commission is scheduled to convene August 19 to formally adopt hunting and trapping regulations for the upcoming season.
The commission’s decision will set harvest limits for roughly six months of hunting and trapping activity across Montana. Given the revised population count, a tighter quota may signal a shift toward more conservative management, though the exact final numbers remain subject to commissioner deliberation and public input.
