Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s open U.S. Senate contest, with Decision Desk HQ’s polling average putting him at 44 percent — nearly 20 points ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead heading into the November 3 general election, according to decisiondeskhq.substack.com.
A Race Shaped by Daines’ Retirement
The seat opened unexpectedly in March when Republican Sen. Steve Daines announced he would not seek re-election, setting off a three-way contest that has unfolded differently than many analysts anticipated. Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, is widely viewed as Daines’ ideological successor in a state President Trump carried by 20 percentage points in 2024.
Decision Desk HQ places Alme’s probability of winning the general election at approximately nine in ten — a substantial advantage that reflects both the state’s deep-red lean and the split between his two opponents.
The Numbers Behind the Race
Alme sits at 44 percent in the Decision Desk HQ average. Bodnar follows at 26 percent, with Bankhead at 21 percent. While Bodnar and Bankhead together account for 47 percent of the polling average — more than Alme alone — a divided opposition has so far failed to consolidate around a single challenger.
Earlier polling told a more competitive story. Head-to-head surveys conducted after the June primary showed Bodnar running close to, or in some cases ahead of, Alme in a hypothetical two-person matchup. That dynamic gave rise to Democratic pressure on Bankhead to step aside and allow left-of-center voters to unite behind Bodnar. Bankhead declined, and she remained in the race past the August 10 withdrawal deadline, making her continued candidacy a fixture of the fall campaign.
Fundraising Reflects the Field’s Uneven Footing
Bodnar has built the most formidable financial operation of the three candidates, raising $3.2 million through June 30. Alme followed with $2.0 million over the same period. Bankhead’s fundraising lagged far behind, totaling just $59,000 — a figure that underscores the structural difficulty her campaign faces in the closing months.
Bodnar’s fundraising edge has not yet translated into a polling advantage, though it has allowed him to sustain a statewide campaign infrastructure and keep his profile elevated. His positioning on key issues such as data centers has been a focal point as he attempts to draw a distinction from both Alme and Bankhead in a race where he must win over voters across the partisan spectrum.
What to Watch
With Bankhead locked in through November, the central question is whether Bodnar can consolidate enough of the non-Republican vote to close the gap, or whether the split opposition allows Alme to coast to victory in a state that has shown little appetite for rewarding Democrats or unaffiliated candidates in recent statewide races.
Montana’s political environment — defined in part by persistent drought conditions that have drawn federal disaster designations for multiple counties and tested the Gianforte administration — could elevate issues beyond the partisan baseline heading into the fall.
Decision Desk HQ’s nine-in-ten odds for Alme place Montana firmly in the “likely Republican” column, though a late-breaking development or significant shift in Bodnar’s standing could still tighten the contest before Election Day on November 3.
