Tryg Koch stood in a 70-acre field near Rose Crossing north of Kalispell in mid-August, watching his newly purchased combine machinery work through the wheat crop. The machine, which cost $160,000, cuts through 10 acres per pass and operates at a pace of up to 900 bushels per hour. Yet despite higher wheat prices driven by global supply shortages, Koch faces a familiar problem: the cost of growing the crop now nearly matches what he can sell it for.

Wheat prices have climbed to approximately $6.45 per bushel, up from $4 per bushel a year earlier. But Koch’s production costs hover around $6 per bushel—a razor-thin margin that leaves little room for profit or unexpected expenses. “The cost of production is about six bucks, so that’s kind of what we need to break even and that’s the struggle with wheat,” Koch told the Flathead Beacon.

Surging Input Costs Erase Price Gains

The modest price recovery masks a deeper economic squeeze for Montana farmers. Since the 2018 Farm Bill passage, labor costs have increased 74 percent and fertilizer expenses have risen 54 percent, while overall farm production costs have jumped 40 percent. Those elevated input costs have not declined despite prices remaining generally depressed for the fourth consecutive year—still substantially below the 2022 peak.

A combine operating during harvest season requires roughly 100 gallons of fuel daily and incurs approximately $400 in daily operating costs. For Koch and other grain farmers across the state, these expenses compound throughout the season, narrowing already thin margins.

Dr. John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis at the American Farm Bureau Federation, captured the persistent challenge facing producers. “All of these crops are well below the highs that we saw in recent years, yet the input costs have not improved—they’re still very, very elevated,” Newton said, as reported by the Flathead Beacon.

Global Wheat Crisis Behind Price Spike

The increase in wheat prices stems largely from international supply disruptions. U.S. wheat production is forecast to reach 1,531 million bushels, the lowest level since 1971. Total American wheat supplies are expected to decline 13 percent from the prior year, while total U.S. winter wheat acreage in the Great Plains dropped 29 percent this year.

The disruptions extend globally. Black Sea wheat exports have fallen 40 percent due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, removing a major source from world markets. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for approximately 32 percent of global wheat trade in the prior year. Canadian wheat production is estimated to decline by 15 percent.

In Montana, Cyndi Johnson, who harvests grain and pulse crops across Chouteau, Pondera, Toole, and Liberty counties, reported wheat yields averaging 40 bushels per acre in mid-August. June’s 6 inches of rain and cool temperatures shaped the 2026 harvest conditions across the state.

Challenges Ahead for Farm Viability

The disconnect between commodity prices and production costs reflects structural pressures facing agricultural producers. While a global wheat shortage has lifted prices meaningfully from last year’s levels, the gains fall short of offsetting the cumulative cost increases farmers have absorbed. For operations like Heritage Custom Farming, breaking even on wheat requires selling at near-current market prices—leaving no buffer for market volatility, equipment failure, or adverse weather.

Farmers across Montana and the nation continue navigating an era of elevated input costs paired with commodity prices that remain below their recent highs, a combination that has tested the financial resilience of agricultural operations for years.