With Tuesday’s primary election now underway, more than 200,000 Montanans have already cast ballots — roughly one in four of the state’s registered voters — signaling that final turnout could approach or exceed historical averages for non-presidential primaries.

Where the Numbers Stand

Montana’s Secretary of State reports 790,737 residents are registered to vote statewide. Of the 513,722 who received mail ballots, about 201,170 — nearly 39 percent — have returned them. That puts total early participation at approximately 25 percent of all registered voters heading into the final hours of voting.

Historical comparisons offer useful context: non-presidential primary turnout in Montana has ranged from a low of 29 percent in 2002 to a high of nearly 42 percent in 2018. If early participation levels hold and late voting follows the 2024 pattern — when roughly 40 percent of all primary votes arrived in the final two days — total turnout this cycle could land toward the upper end of that range.

Tuesday’s contest is a consequential one. Montana voters are deciding primaries for seats held by U.S. Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Ryan Zinke, both of whom are not seeking reelection to those offices, along with numerous state and local races.

Registration Still Open

County election offices were open Monday morning for last-minute registration, and voters can still register or update their registration at those offices through 8 p.m. Tuesday. A court ruling blocking Senate Bill 490, which would have ended same-day registration and tightened Election Day hours, means those extended registration options remain in place for this cycle.

For voters who received absentee ballots and haven’t yet returned them, mailing is no longer a viable option. Those ballots must be delivered in person to county election offices before 8 p.m. Tuesday to be counted.

A Consequential Primary

The elevated early-ballot return figures come amid unusually high-profile intraparty competition on the Republican side, where contested races up and down the ballot have drawn significant candidate spending and voter outreach efforts. Democrats also face competitive primaries in several key races.

Whether Montana ultimately eclipses its modern primary participation records will depend heavily on in-person turnout Tuesday. Given how sharply the 2024 primary skewed toward late voting, election observers note the final tally could shift considerably by evening.