Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag are separated by a single percentage point in Montana’s Western District U.S. House race, according to a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll conducted August 27 through September 7. The survey of 375 registered voters found Flint at 42 percent and Forstag at 41 percent, with Libertarian Nick Sheedy drawing 5 percent. Nine percent said they preferred no candidate or someone else, and 2 percent said they would not vote.
The margin of error for Western District voters is 6 points, meaning the race is statistically tied. If the final result is as close as current polling suggests, it would mark Montana’s tightest U.S. House contest since 1992.
An Open Seat After Zinke Steps Aside
The Western District seat was created following the 2020 Census to account for Montana’s population growth and first appeared on the ballot in 2022. Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke held the seat from its inception but announced in March that he would not seek another term, citing health problems. His departure left the seat open and transformed the race into one of the most competitive federal contests in the state this cycle.
The 16-county district includes Missoula and Gallatin counties, which rank first and second statewide for Democratic voter registration, as well as Flathead County, which holds the second-highest concentration of Republican voters in Montana.
Gender and Age Gaps Shape the Contest
The poll reveals sharp demographic divisions. Women favor Forstag by a wide margin — 50 percent to Flint’s 39 percent — while men break toward Flint at 45 percent compared to Forstag’s 32 percent. Sheedy drew 8 percent among men and 2 percent among women.
Age tells a similar story of divergence. Voters between 18 and 44 lean toward Forstag at roughly 49 percent, with Flint drawing 34 percent in that group. Among voters 65 and older, Flint leads with 51 percent to Forstag’s 36 percent. Sheedy pulled about 5 percent across all age groups.
Favorability Numbers Tight as Well
Neither candidate has built a commanding favorable image among those who know them. Flint’s favorable rating among respondents familiar with him stands at 31 percent, with 32 percent viewing him unfavorably and 19 percent offering no opinion. Forstag holds a somewhat stronger favorability mark at 41 percent, with 19 percent viewing him unfavorably.
The poll was conducted using a probability-based method drawing from the state’s registered voter file, with participants recruited by text message to complete an online survey. Results were weighted to reflect the demographic composition of Montana’s registered voters.
What’s at Stake
Montana’s general election voting period runs from October 6 through November 3. The Western District race is widely viewed as the state’s most competitive federal contest this fall. Montana Republicans held a rare midterm convention in Dallas earlier this year, a sign of the party’s organizational focus heading into November.
A separate competitive race has drawn attention in the eastern part of the state, where signature challenges and county-level petition reviews have complicated another congressional contest.