Homicides fell sharply in the first half of 2026, dropping 18 percent compared to the same period last year and approaching the lowest levels recorded in more than a century, according to new data analysis released this week.
The Council on Criminal Justice examined crime figures from 36 major cities across the country and found that nine of the 13 tracked crime categories declined during the first six months of 2026. Among the 30 cities reporting homicide data, killings fell by 215 total incidents, with 21 of those cities recording year-over-year decreases.
National Trend Continues Downward
The latest figures extend a decline in lethal violence that began in late 2022, following a sharp rise during the pandemic years. The homicide rate in the first half of 2026 sat 51 percent below its 2022 peak and 31 percent lower than the corresponding period in 2019, before the pandemic.
The national homicide rate in 2025 is estimated to have reached its lowest level since at least 1900. Final figures from the FBI are expected in the fall, but preliminary data suggests the decline is continuing into 2026 across multiple cities of varying sizes and regions.
Among the steepest declines, four cities saw homicide rates fall by more than 50 percent: Rochester, New York; Little Rock, Arkansas; Arlington, Texas; and Colorado Springs, Colorado. However, four cities—Austin, Minneapolis, Norfolk, and Pittsburgh—still recorded homicide rates above their 2019 baseline levels.
Mixed Results Across Crime Categories
Beyond homicides, the broader violent crime picture showed significant progress in several categories. Robberies fell 17 percent, carjackings plummeted 47 percent, and the lethality of serious violent crimes declined 23 percent compared to the first half of 2025. Gun assaults dropped 6 percent.
Property crimes also showed improvement. Motor vehicle theft fell 20 percent, residential burglaries declined 13 percent, and larcenies dropped 6 percent. These reductions suggest progress against the kinds of street-level offenses that have long preoccupied law enforcement agencies and city governments.
The data reveal sharp countertrends in some areas. Drug offenses rose 12 percent during the same period, and domestic violence incidents climbed 8 percent. Shoplifting rates in the first half of 2026 remained 5 percent above their 2019 levels, and aggravated assaults fell only 3 percent compared to 2019, suggesting uneven progress against all forms of violence.
Causes Remain Unclear
The analysis included data from major cities including Baltimore, Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., providing a broad geographic snapshot of crime trends across the country.
Report authors acknowledged uncertainty about what is driving the decline. “There is no single or easy explanation for these historic lows,” they wrote in their findings.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, offered a more nuanced assessment. “Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” he said. Gelb’s observation points to the possibility that broad economic, demographic, or social conditions may be playing a larger role than any individual city’s law enforcement strategy or policy initiative.
The sharp reductions in homicides and serious violent crimes represent a significant shift after years of elevated violence that followed the pandemic. Whether the trend continues into the second half of 2026 and beyond remains an open question as researchers and policymakers study the underlying drivers of the decline.
